The analysis of defaults not intercepted by the scores

We analyzed the 2016 financial statements of 656 Companies that defaulted in 2018 to verify if it is possible and how early to intercept the signs of the crisis. The analysis concerns both small businesses and businesses with revenues (in 2016) exceeding 500 million euros. In 55% of cases the signs of the crisis are clear and evident. However, 6% of the companies showed a very good economic, equity and financial profile, thus escaping the control of the warning systems.

But what are the characteristics of these companies? Is it possible to enhance the scores to intercept this type of company as well? What other elements can be considered?

Andrea Paschina - Head of Evaluation of Banca IFIS Operations



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