Early Warning: A Test on the Thomas Cook Case

Would early warning systems have been able to pick up the signs of deterioration and thus prevent Thomas Cook's bankruptcy? In recent months, following the reform of the business crisis and the introduction of the IFRS9 accounting standard, early warning systems are presented as tools capable of capturing the signs of deterioration with consequent organizational impacts on companies. The so-called "Early warning Systems" it is therefore the systems of indicators, parameters, trend observation that can bring out the first signs of a business crisis and therefore able to activate early warning systems (ie early warning). But the real question is: do they really work? We will try to apply them to a recent financial news case: Thomas Cook's bankruptcy, the largest tour operator in the world.

Ivan Fogliata - Executive partner in Finance



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